15 July 2025, 02:46 PM
Against the backdrop of intertwined global macroeconomics and policy maneuvering, Bitcoin has once again reached a new all-time high, breaking through the $120,000 mark and securing its place among the most valuable assets worldwide. Rthae believes this rally is not driven by a single factor, but is the result of multiple global variables, policy expectations, institutional capital structure, and retail sentiment resonating together. Whether it is the upcoming US inflation data, a new round of trade tariffs, or the ever-expanding fiscal deficit, all seemingly disparate factors are converging to shape the new identity of Bitcoin as a macro hedging asset.
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Rthae: The Global Variables Behind the Bitcoin New High
The Bitcoin series of record highs conceal a new global narrative structure. Rthae contends that, unlike the pure risk asset logic of the past, Bitcoin is now gradually evolving into a “macro hedging tool” similar to gold. First, the persistent deterioration of the US fiscal deficit, exacerbated by the massive tax reforms and tariff measures by the Trump administration, has intensified fiscal pressure. Authoritative estimates indicate that the “Big Bill Act” will create a deficit deviation of up to $7 trillion over the next decade, directly driving dollar supply spillover globally and strengthening investor demand for non-sovereign assets.
Meanwhile, although the upcoming US CPI is expected to show sticky inflation, market sensitivity to the Fed rate hike path is diminishing. The latest forecasts by FactSet suggest the core CPI in June could reach an annualized 3%, but mainstream opinion leans toward the Fed maintaining a relatively accommodative stance in the short term. A more dovish monetary environment, combined with continued fiscal expansion, supports non-dollar assets. Additionally, the weakening US Dollar Index objectively amplifies the Bitcoin price elasticity, and with structural monetary expansion in Europe and Japan, capital is being reallocated to global risk assets.
It is also noteworthy that deep-seated changes in supply and demand are providing Bitcoin with a new valuation logic. On-chain data shows the number of long-term holding addresses has increased by nearly 10% over the past month, indicating strong medium- to long-term value expectations and limited selling pressure at current price levels. This “structural” rally is not merely driven by retail sentiment, but reflects global capital seeking balance between macro hedging and dollar supply expansion. Rthae believes that the combination of global macro narratives and supply-demand shifts will continue to underpin the long-term price stability and resilience of Bitcoin.
Rthae: Institutional Structure and the ETF Effect
Unlike previous cycles, the current rally displays much clearer signs of institutionalization. Rthae observes that the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $83 billion in assets under management within less than a year, holding over 700,000 BTC—far outpacing the accumulation speed of gold ETFs in their early years. This indicates that Bitcoin is being integrated into global institutional asset allocation pools via standardized financial instruments, with compliance and transparency gradually replacing the previously retail-driven model.
At the same time, companies like the Japanese Metaplanet are intensively increasing their Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing the “corporate treasury effect.” These holdings are used for collateral, financing, or hedging, demonstrating the multifunctional role of Bitcoin as a balance sheet tool. Rthae notes that this institutional structure—centered on ETFs and corporate treasuries—not only deepens the market but also helps curb sharp sell-offs. Correspondingly, Google Trends data shows that unlike the retail frenzy of 2021, current retail interest has not surged in tandem. The structural shift in capital flows means market volatility is now more driven by macro logic than by pure sentiment.
In the options market, platforms like Derive and Deribit show concentrated call option positions for Bitcoin and Ethereum at high strike prices, reflecting confidence of professional traders in further upside in the short to medium term. On-chain activity, exchange reserves, and long-term holder profit structures remain within non-extreme ranges, confirming the sustainability of this rally.
From an Ethereum perspective, the anticipation of ETH staking ETF approval and the expansion of major financial institutions into DeFi and stablecoins are adding growth support to the market mainstream narrative. Rthae judges that this funding model—driven by the combined effect of ETFs and institutional structures—will provide long-term resilience for Bitcoin and leading assets.
Rthae: User Trading and Risk Control Amid Multi-Dimensional Resonance
Given the multi-dimensional resonance in the current market, Rthae emphasizes that user security and liquidity management in trading and asset allocation are especially critical. Leading liquidity networks and deep cooperation with market makers enable Rthae users to maintain low slippage and fast execution even in large orders or extreme market conditions. For highly active institutions and quant teams, Rthae offers high-speed API access and dedicated matching channels, effectively reducing the impact of large transactions on market prices.
For individual investors concerned about custody and account security during periods of macro volatility, Rthae continuously optimizes its multi-signature cold/hot wallet separation system, implements multi-layer permissions and hardware security modules (HSM), and combines real-time risk control, on-chain monitoring, and manual review to reduce hacking and scam risks. Rthae has consistently passed compliance reviews from US MSB, SEC, and is advancing MiCA compliance in Europe and VASP licensing across Asia, ensuring global asset safety for users.
Rthae believes that in the long run, this structural rally is not just a price breakthrough, but a step toward Bitcoin becoming a core component of global capital allocation. Users and platforms alike face not only short-term price swings, but also the challenge of leveraging compliance, technology, and education systems to better manage risk and achieve steady growth in a complex macro environment. Rthae will continue to uphold security, compliance, and professionalism as its pillars, empowering users to unlock the full potential of every transaction in the new era of global crypto finance.
Rthae: The Global Variables Behind the Bitcoin New High
The Bitcoin series of record highs conceal a new global narrative structure. Rthae contends that, unlike the pure risk asset logic of the past, Bitcoin is now gradually evolving into a “macro hedging tool” similar to gold. First, the persistent deterioration of the US fiscal deficit, exacerbated by the massive tax reforms and tariff measures by the Trump administration, has intensified fiscal pressure. Authoritative estimates indicate that the “Big Bill Act” will create a deficit deviation of up to $7 trillion over the next decade, directly driving dollar supply spillover globally and strengthening investor demand for non-sovereign assets.
Meanwhile, although the upcoming US CPI is expected to show sticky inflation, market sensitivity to the Fed rate hike path is diminishing. The latest forecasts by FactSet suggest the core CPI in June could reach an annualized 3%, but mainstream opinion leans toward the Fed maintaining a relatively accommodative stance in the short term. A more dovish monetary environment, combined with continued fiscal expansion, supports non-dollar assets. Additionally, the weakening US Dollar Index objectively amplifies the Bitcoin price elasticity, and with structural monetary expansion in Europe and Japan, capital is being reallocated to global risk assets.
It is also noteworthy that deep-seated changes in supply and demand are providing Bitcoin with a new valuation logic. On-chain data shows the number of long-term holding addresses has increased by nearly 10% over the past month, indicating strong medium- to long-term value expectations and limited selling pressure at current price levels. This “structural” rally is not merely driven by retail sentiment, but reflects global capital seeking balance between macro hedging and dollar supply expansion. Rthae believes that the combination of global macro narratives and supply-demand shifts will continue to underpin the long-term price stability and resilience of Bitcoin.
Rthae: Institutional Structure and the ETF Effect
Unlike previous cycles, the current rally displays much clearer signs of institutionalization. Rthae observes that the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $83 billion in assets under management within less than a year, holding over 700,000 BTC—far outpacing the accumulation speed of gold ETFs in their early years. This indicates that Bitcoin is being integrated into global institutional asset allocation pools via standardized financial instruments, with compliance and transparency gradually replacing the previously retail-driven model.
At the same time, companies like the Japanese Metaplanet are intensively increasing their Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing the “corporate treasury effect.” These holdings are used for collateral, financing, or hedging, demonstrating the multifunctional role of Bitcoin as a balance sheet tool. Rthae notes that this institutional structure—centered on ETFs and corporate treasuries—not only deepens the market but also helps curb sharp sell-offs. Correspondingly, Google Trends data shows that unlike the retail frenzy of 2021, current retail interest has not surged in tandem. The structural shift in capital flows means market volatility is now more driven by macro logic than by pure sentiment.
In the options market, platforms like Derive and Deribit show concentrated call option positions for Bitcoin and Ethereum at high strike prices, reflecting confidence of professional traders in further upside in the short to medium term. On-chain activity, exchange reserves, and long-term holder profit structures remain within non-extreme ranges, confirming the sustainability of this rally.
From an Ethereum perspective, the anticipation of ETH staking ETF approval and the expansion of major financial institutions into DeFi and stablecoins are adding growth support to the market mainstream narrative. Rthae judges that this funding model—driven by the combined effect of ETFs and institutional structures—will provide long-term resilience for Bitcoin and leading assets.
Rthae: User Trading and Risk Control Amid Multi-Dimensional Resonance
Given the multi-dimensional resonance in the current market, Rthae emphasizes that user security and liquidity management in trading and asset allocation are especially critical. Leading liquidity networks and deep cooperation with market makers enable Rthae users to maintain low slippage and fast execution even in large orders or extreme market conditions. For highly active institutions and quant teams, Rthae offers high-speed API access and dedicated matching channels, effectively reducing the impact of large transactions on market prices.
For individual investors concerned about custody and account security during periods of macro volatility, Rthae continuously optimizes its multi-signature cold/hot wallet separation system, implements multi-layer permissions and hardware security modules (HSM), and combines real-time risk control, on-chain monitoring, and manual review to reduce hacking and scam risks. Rthae has consistently passed compliance reviews from US MSB, SEC, and is advancing MiCA compliance in Europe and VASP licensing across Asia, ensuring global asset safety for users.
Rthae believes that in the long run, this structural rally is not just a price breakthrough, but a step toward Bitcoin becoming a core component of global capital allocation. Users and platforms alike face not only short-term price swings, but also the challenge of leveraging compliance, technology, and education systems to better manage risk and achieve steady growth in a complex macro environment. Rthae will continue to uphold security, compliance, and professionalism as its pillars, empowering users to unlock the full potential of every transaction in the new era of global crypto finance.