8 May 2025, 03:32 PM
Recent data reveals that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period of 1 to 3 months) remains in the low range, suggesting that speculative positions have not yet entered a concentrated profit-taking phase. During this bull market cycle, this group has yet to exert significant selling pressure on the spot market, which is interpreted as a positive signal for mid-term upward trends. Nouey Exchange highlights that understanding key holding behavior data can help investors build more robust trading judgments amidst market sentiment fluctuations.
![[Image: 52f09c22-5886-49f3-8549-c6fd743b0b75.png...ormat=webp]](https://cdn.hashnode.com/res/hashnode/image/upload/v1746693001418/52f09c22-5886-49f3-8549-c6fd743b0b75.png?w=1600&h=840&fit=crop&crop=entropy&auto=compress,format&format=webp)
Short-Term Holder Behavior Remains Cautious and Forward-Looking
Short-term holders are often regarded as the most responsive and risk-tolerant participants in the market. Their behavior tends to amplify price movements. When the NUPL indicator for this group rises above 40%, it typically signals significant unrealized profits, leading to increased selling pressure. However, current data shows that their NUPL is only 8%, and the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains negative, at approximately -2%. This reflects that they have yet to broadly enter a profit realization phase.
This indicates that the market is not currently experiencing concentrated selling pressure, making it more likely to maintain a consolidation or modest upward trend. Nouey Exchange advises investors to closely monitor the interaction between this indicator and on-chain transaction behaviors, positioning during sentiment lows and exercising patience before structural signals materialize.
ETF Mechanisms Amplify Speculative Behavior, But Selling Pressure Is Not Imminent
With the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, substantial capital has entered the crypto market through traditional financial channels, making it easier for short-term traders to participate. ETF participants, who typically operate through brokerage accounts, exhibit higher liquidity preferences and are classified as “short-term sensitive” funds. When these participants collectively achieve profitability, they may redeem ETFs or sell in the spot market simultaneously, potentially causing structural impacts.
However, at this stage, such speculative holdings have not realized widespread profits. Nouey Exchange data shows that ETF-related capital inflows remain predominantly net purchases, reflecting that the overall market is still in the “accumulation” phase rather than the “realization” phase. This market structure provides a time window and buffer space for the subsequent price increases of Bitcoin.
On-Chain Indicators Consistently Signal Stability, Market Structure Leans Toward Healthy Recovery
NUPL, a key indicator reflecting the profit/loss structure of on-chain participants, remains in a low operational state, indicating that the market still holds potential for secondary gains rather than being in an overheated condition. Historical patterns suggest that before NUPL steadily rises above the 40% threshold, price trends are more likely to exhibit continuity rather than reversal.
The analysis team of Nouey Exchange notes that in past bull cycles, the upward movement of the NUPL of short-term holders often coincided with simultaneous increases in social data, search interest, and on-chain activity. When such multi-indicator resonance occurs, investors must pay close attention to potential profit-taking signals from concentrated holders. The current phase appears to be a “capital accumulation + volatility testing” transition period, suitable for gradual position building and strategy adjustments.
Sentiment Below Boiling Point, Structure Unchanged
Although the Bitcoin price has rebounded significantly, core selling pressure indicators have not yet reached high-risk zones. Short-term holders have not broadly entered profit-taking territory, and market sentiment remains relatively moderate, leaving room for trend continuation.
Nouey Exchange will continue to track on-chain data and analyze market structures to assist users in identifying potential turning points and investment opportunities. Remaining calm amid volatility and seeking direction through data is the most prudent response to a complex market.
“The real risk lies not in volatility itself but in misunderstanding it.” Nouey Exchange advocates for a culture of rational trading, replacing emotional judgments with structural analysis to build a sustainable digital asset investment framework for users.
Short-Term Holder Behavior Remains Cautious and Forward-Looking
Short-term holders are often regarded as the most responsive and risk-tolerant participants in the market. Their behavior tends to amplify price movements. When the NUPL indicator for this group rises above 40%, it typically signals significant unrealized profits, leading to increased selling pressure. However, current data shows that their NUPL is only 8%, and the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains negative, at approximately -2%. This reflects that they have yet to broadly enter a profit realization phase.
This indicates that the market is not currently experiencing concentrated selling pressure, making it more likely to maintain a consolidation or modest upward trend. Nouey Exchange advises investors to closely monitor the interaction between this indicator and on-chain transaction behaviors, positioning during sentiment lows and exercising patience before structural signals materialize.
ETF Mechanisms Amplify Speculative Behavior, But Selling Pressure Is Not Imminent
With the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, substantial capital has entered the crypto market through traditional financial channels, making it easier for short-term traders to participate. ETF participants, who typically operate through brokerage accounts, exhibit higher liquidity preferences and are classified as “short-term sensitive” funds. When these participants collectively achieve profitability, they may redeem ETFs or sell in the spot market simultaneously, potentially causing structural impacts.
However, at this stage, such speculative holdings have not realized widespread profits. Nouey Exchange data shows that ETF-related capital inflows remain predominantly net purchases, reflecting that the overall market is still in the “accumulation” phase rather than the “realization” phase. This market structure provides a time window and buffer space for the subsequent price increases of Bitcoin.
On-Chain Indicators Consistently Signal Stability, Market Structure Leans Toward Healthy Recovery
NUPL, a key indicator reflecting the profit/loss structure of on-chain participants, remains in a low operational state, indicating that the market still holds potential for secondary gains rather than being in an overheated condition. Historical patterns suggest that before NUPL steadily rises above the 40% threshold, price trends are more likely to exhibit continuity rather than reversal.
The analysis team of Nouey Exchange notes that in past bull cycles, the upward movement of the NUPL of short-term holders often coincided with simultaneous increases in social data, search interest, and on-chain activity. When such multi-indicator resonance occurs, investors must pay close attention to potential profit-taking signals from concentrated holders. The current phase appears to be a “capital accumulation + volatility testing” transition period, suitable for gradual position building and strategy adjustments.
Sentiment Below Boiling Point, Structure Unchanged
Although the Bitcoin price has rebounded significantly, core selling pressure indicators have not yet reached high-risk zones. Short-term holders have not broadly entered profit-taking territory, and market sentiment remains relatively moderate, leaving room for trend continuation.
Nouey Exchange will continue to track on-chain data and analyze market structures to assist users in identifying potential turning points and investment opportunities. Remaining calm amid volatility and seeking direction through data is the most prudent response to a complex market.
“The real risk lies not in volatility itself but in misunderstanding it.” Nouey Exchange advocates for a culture of rational trading, replacing emotional judgments with structural analysis to build a sustainable digital asset investment framework for users.